CALGARY — The parliamentary budget officer (PBO) has declared 2026 to be the second year in a row Canada has had zero population growth. And while some would like to claim immigration is Canada's only hope— one politician says it can be solved by fixing Canada's affordability crisis.According to the PBO's 2026-2028 immigration update, it predicts a flat population growth for the remainder of 2026 and only a "modest" growth in 2027 of 0.3%.The PBO also says growth will then level out at around 0.8%, lower than the historical average of 1.1%.What does this mean for Canada's population?.As Dan Hiebert, a University of British Columbia geography professor who studies human migration, told The Canadian Press, Canada's population growth is facing an "unprecedented" turn of events: its future population growth is dependent on government policy.“Natural increase in Canada is going to hit zero really soon.""Maybe 2029, maybe 2030, give or take. And at that point, all population growth is going to be immigration-related, like 100%,” Hiebert stated.“It means that wherever the government of Canada, and in particular (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada), wherever it sets that immigration number at, that’s the amount the population is going to grow. So that’s historically unprecedented.”The feds' 2023 report on immigration stated by 2032, immigration would account for 100% of population growth..But Maxime Bernier, leader of the People's Party of Canada, does not think this has to be the case.On X, he reasoned this stagnation is caused by Canada's affordability crisis, a solvable issue.He highlights Canada's fertility issue is not isolated, but is also seen in many developed nations, like in East Asia, Europe, and North America.With an aging population, the feds state between 2024 and 2030, 5 million Canadians will retire, causing the worker-to-retiree population to decrease to three to one, creating "concerns about the long-term sustainability of our social safety net," Bernier stated..He claims the message that Canada needs millions more young immigrants to replace the aging population is simply not true. "Immigrants are slightly younger than the average Canadian, but they are not nearly young enough to reverse our aging demographics," stated Bernier."More immigration is not making Canada younger; it’s only making the Canadian population bigger."According to Statistics Canada 2021 Census data, 64% of recent immigrants were aged 25 to 54..Here's where Bernier stated what he believes to be the real issue: "The real problem is that our own people can no longer afford to start families."Bernier states the affordability crisis comes in different forms: "unaffordable housing (driven up by mass immigration), an exploding cost of living, and financial insecurity."He then points to a positive feedback loop: "Mass immigration has driven up housing costs, which discourages young couples from having babies, which causes the birth rate to fall, which is then used as the excuse for even more immigrants."Bernier says a dwindling population (to a degree) can be a good thing..The population decline may last for a while, but it may actually stabilize, relieving the pressure on housing, healthcare, education, infrastructure and the environment. He also points to the feds, "The problem is a big, fat government that wastes our money on DEI programs, climate change, foreign aid, corporate handouts and all sorts of useless and inefficient programs to buy votes."Overall, Bernier says the way to promote higher fertility rates is to make Canada more affordable to start a family.
