A Mainstreet Research poll released Friday suggests the Liberals have gained a significant increase in projected seats since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intent to resign.
The pollster’s research further demonstrates the most influential leader in Canada right now is Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who is ahead of Tory leader Pierre Poilievre, Trudeau and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith — in that order.
Mainstreet research — done before Mark Carney entered the race — now projects 72 seats for the Liberals in the next election, up from less than 30 from the polls conducted in December and November, prior to the prime minister’s resignation announcement. This represents a 10-point shift from the last poll.
Quito Maggi from Mainstreet Research told the Western Standard he calls the phenomenon a “natural bump.”
“This is a massive change,” said Maggi.
The vast majority of Canadians, even those who voted Liberal in 2021, wanted Trudeau out of office, he said. Now that Trudeau has made his intent to resign public, a host of Liberal voters will show up to vote for the party in the next election.
The pollster’s sample in the last two polls when asked what is their greatest motivation for voting in the next election, “by far the most common response was getting rid of Justin Trudeau,” said Maggi.
“By far…close to 90% of the people who voted liberal in 2021 said their motivation was getting rid of Justin Trudeau.”
“It all came back to Trudeau.”
“That's why I called it a natural bump, because … if Trudeau left, most of that 2021 vote would now become again accessible for the Liberals.
Maggi pointed out Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives still hold a 20 point lead, with this most recent poll suggesting they have a 96.8% chance at winning a majority government.
Mainstreet plans to release a second poll on Monday examining the Liberal leadership race.
“It's impossible for me to say, at least in the absence of Justin Trudeau — once the new leader is selected, Canadians may, in fact, decide they like that new leader even less, or maybe like them more,” said Maggi.
Support for the NDP in light of the recent poll is now the lowest it has been in nearly a year.
“Some of the NDP vote is now parked with the Liberals, knowing that there's an election imminent,” said Maggi.
“And yet the Conservatives, with 46%, have not dropped far from where they were, 48%, in our last poll. So this is not a massive dropping in Conservative support.”
Moreover, the poll found Canadians universally oppose the notion of being annexed by the United States, something incoming President Donald Trump has alluded to on multiple occasions, and with increasing seriousness.
Notably, 97% of Liberal voters, who traditionally have leaned towards open borders and globalism, vehemently oppose Trump’s plan to make Canada the 51st state, while Conservatives, who typically uphold national sovereignty, staunchly oppose the idea at a rate of about 55%.
“This is a very clear indication that Canadians do not want to negotiate whatsoever,” said Maggi.
“It's a massive majority of Canadians who strongly oppose negotiating with the United States under these under this premise.”
“Sovereignty is not negotiable, that we can have all the disputes we want with our our largest trading partner, but the Canadians, at least right now — and this is across every region, across all political affiliations, all ages, all genders, education, income levels — the vast majority strongly oppose negotiating with the United States as it stands.”
Maggi agreed when asked if he thinks Trump himself is part of the reason why Liberal voters oppose Canada becoming the 51st state.
“Yes, I think some of that is 100% placed into it as well,” he said.
“Although, when it comes to popularity in general and across Canada, I remember we were polling both Canada and US back in 2016 and again in 2024 and Trump's appeal has increased significantly in Canada.”
Maggi said he thinks Canadians are gaining respect for Trump. “I guess the lesson is that, for Canadian politicians, they should be more like Doug Ford right now,” he said.
“Who do most Canadians think is representing their view best right now? Doug Ford,” said Maggi.
“Doug Ford right now is riding very, very high.”
“Most Canadians think he's leading. Second place, I think, was Pierre Poilievre. Third, Justin Trudeau, fourth, Daniel Smith.”
“He’s Captain Canada right now.”
