Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the fiscal and economic policy division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance.On October 19, Albertans voted slightly in favour of greater provincial control over immigration, limiting the full scope of provincially funded programs to citizens, permanent residents, and Alberta-approved status, a 12-month residency requirement for social supports, and a fee or premium on non-permanent residents (NPRs) for use of healthcare and education services. But what does this mean?About a year ago, the Smith government identified the provincial costs of supporting NPRs as a drain on the province’s finances. According to Premier Danielle Smith, “for every $1 of taxes a guest worker generates, taxpayers are covering $10 in services. This is not sustainable.” The government estimates that $600 million is spent on K-12 education for NPRs each year, approximately $400 million per year on healthcare, and about $100 million per year on social services, such as the childcare subsidy and the Alberta Child and Family Benefit. The Smith government has been musing about imposing a fee on NPRs to access public healthcare.Yet, after all these months, the Smith government still has not provided Albertans with a full analysis of the impact of NPRs on Alberta’s fiscal and economic position. The commentary presented here helps fill that void.NPRs represent the number of “persons who are lawfully in Canada on a temporary basis under the authority of a temporary resident permit, along with members of their family living with them. NPRs include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population and other temporary residents. The humanitarian population includes refugee claimants and temporary residents who are allowed to remain in Canada on humanitarian grounds and are not categorized as either foreign workers or foreign students.” This commentary estimates NPRs’ net fiscal and economic impacts on Alberta over 25 fiscal years, from 2027-28 to 2051-52, under low-growth, medium-growth, and high-growth scenarios. Each scenario projects NPR impacts on the provincial economy and the Alberta government’s finances by isolating the contribution of NPRs and comparing it with a scenario in which NPRs and their revenues and costs are removed..On the provincial revenue side, NPRs pay provincial personal income tax (PIT), consumption-based taxes, and international tuition at post-secondary institutions; they raise federal Canada Health Transfer (CHT) and Canada Social Transfer (CST) entitlements, which are paid per capita; and contribute indirectly to provincial corporate income tax (CIT). On the provincial cost side, they draw on healthcare services, but at below-per-capita levels because NPRs are younger and some are not insured; K-12 schooling for their children; post-secondary instruction; social supports for refugee claimants; and other public services and infrastructure.I estimate that, in 2027-28, NPRs will pay an estimated $500 million in provincial PIT, $200 million indirectly in provincial CIT, $350 million in other taxes, draw in $125 million of equal per capita federal transfers from the CHT and CST, and pay $450 million in international tuition fees. On the expenditure side, in 2027-28, NPRs will consume about $1 billion in post-secondary education costs, $600 million in healthcare, $550 million in K-12 education, $125 million in social services, and $125 million in other programs, such as justice and transportation. Thus, I estimate that for every dollar of provincial revenues raised from NPRs, taxpayers cover about $2 in provincial programs and services, not the $1 to $10 ratio that the Alberta government claims.Statistics Canada estimates that there were 279,500 non-permanent residents in Alberta on July 1, 2026 — about 5.5% of Alberta’s population — down from 287,434 a year earlier, as limits on temporary migration took effect. Nationally, the NPR population fell by about 155,000 over the past year, to 2.8 million, or 6.7% of Canada’s population.Going forward, NPRs are projected to be about 3.5% of Alberta’s total population in the low-growth case, 4.5% in the medium-growth case, and 5.8% in the high-growth case, depending on the pace at which major project labour demand pulls temporary workers into the province. By 2051-52, there will be an estimated 230,000 NPRs in Alberta in the low-growth case, 320,000 NPRs in Alberta in the medium-growth case, and 460,000 NPRs in Alberta in the high-growth case.I find that NPRs add to Alberta’s GDP. Their direct and indirect contribution averages 3.3% of Alberta nominal GDP in the low-growth case, 4.5% in the medium-growth case, and 6.4% in the high-growth case, or a cumulative $600 billion, $1 trillion, and $1.8 trillion over 25 years, while supporting 135,000, 190,000, and 290,000 cumulative jobs, respectively. NPRs also generate cumulative labour income of $250 billion to $750 billion..NPRs’ cumulative net fiscal contribution (total revenues minus total expenses) to Alberta over 25 years is a negative $8 billion in the low-growth case, but a positive $6 billion in the medium-growth case, and a positive $70 billion in the high-growth case. Alberta’s net financial debt, as of March 31, 2052, increases by $10 billion in the low-growth case, but decreases by $2 billion in the medium-growth case, and $65 billion in the high-growth case.Cumulatively, over 25 years, in the medium case, NPR total revenue is an estimated $110 billion, and NPR total expense is an estimated $104 billion, leaving a net benefit of about $6 billion, or about $850 per NPR per year, in the medium-growth case. The largest revenue items are international tuition and fees ($45 billion), provincial personal income tax ($20 billion), and federal equal per capita CHT and CST transfers ($20 billion). The largest cost items are post-secondary instruction ($40 billion), healthcare ($25 billion), and K-12 education ($20 billion).Given the economic and fiscal impacts we have outlined above, if the Alberta government deems NPR costs to be a substantial financial drain on the province’s finances, it needs to put a full and accurate fiscal and economic impact analysis on the table for all Albertans to see in order to guide a robust, evidence-based, and thoughtful public policy decision and implementation process.Lennie Kaplan is a former senior manager in the fiscal and economic policy division of Alberta’s Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance, where, among other duties, he examined best practices in fiscal frameworks and program reviews. In 2019, Kaplan served as executive director to the MacKinnon Panel on Alberta’s finances — a government-appointed panel tasked with reviewing Alberta’s spending and recommending reforms.
