William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.This past week, the number of negative references to the “separation” referendum exploded, but many of them simply repeated each other’s talking points. At my deadline, the number of negative articles in print media is over 20, with not one positive take. The full force of this media assault is bound to have an effect even if this volume of propaganda cannot be sustained. And some of it is backfiring. Of course, these are the same folks who complain that modern political discourse is too divisive but are incapable of looking in their mirrors, as they are covered with mud.One fact is becoming apparent, even to those who are the most dismissive: the independence movement is no longer just some fringe aberration. And no matter what the final numbers, the gains currently being made both in minds changed and arguments advanced are not going away.Adam Legge, in an op-ed in the National Post, was absolutely ravaged in the 500+ comments as he makes no suggestions as to what Alberta should do to fight for a better deal. In a follow-up article: “If the polls are true and Albertans vote to remain in Canada,” Legge said, “it will not put an end to pro-independence talks.” He said, “It is very likely it will remain an issue in Alberta politics for the foreseeable future, and the impact on the business community is yet to be determined.” Oddly, Legge said, “he has not heard from members who are experiencing any economic challenges due to the referendum.” This is what is called an “own goal.”However, to save Danielle Smith from the challenge of a newly minted Alberta Independence Party, she must have sufficient numbers for a renewed mandate to take to the rest of Canada. Will she send a letter demanding a First Ministers conference on electoral and democratic reform with only 20% support for option 2? Mid-forties means there is no mistake that Albertans are serious about fixing Canada.In that regard, the messaging to our non-engaged friends and family needs to be simple. This is not a vote on “separating” from Canada. You are getting played. Option 2 is actually a vote for a way forward for Canada. Then offer to take them to the advance polls or wait with them on voting day..If they want information on immigration or constitutional issues, keep it simple as well. If Alberta taxpayers must pay for the costs of immigration, we should at least be able to control the numbers. If Canada wants to be truly democratic, then our electoral system and institutions must honour the principle of ‘one person gets one vote.’The main concern with people who are not fully engaged is that they may be susceptible to propaganda or may choose to not bother voting. But a clear message from someone they respect can make all the difference.But on to the highlights from last week.The reporting around the challenges to Elections Alberta’s management of this exercise in direct democracy certainly paints a vivid story. And people are responding by requesting mail-in ballots now, up to 290,000. In a complete reversal of the issues in the US, where the abuse of mail-in ballots is alleged against the Left, here it is against the Right or the pro-Option 2 voters. But to question the very integrity of Elections Alberta is a step too far. Don Braid alleges that the “leaked” voters list (which is just what was normally released in old-fashioned phone books — name, address, phone number), “The shadow of this fiasco, still being investigated, looms over the Oct. 19 voting. Bad actors who scrape data could potentially obtain special mail-in ballots.” Clearly, they would have to somehow commandeer the postal system and circumvent all of Elections Alberta's anti-fraud measures as well. But nothing is impossible for these bad actors. Is scraping data really a thing? Who is buying this tripe?But the question of voter turnout is not irrelevant. The 80-85% assumption on which Elections Alberta is currently staffing will just never materialize. The highest turnout for a recent Alberta general election was in 2019 when Jason Kenney defeated Rachel Notley, but still only achieved 67% of registered voters. The 2015 angry Alberta voter backlash against Danielle Smith and Jim Prentice, which gave Rachel Notley her accidental government, was less, at 57%..Referendums don’t prove to be big vote attractions either. The Equalization referendum, which yielded a 62% vote to dump the program, only managed a 39% turnout with Calgarians at 46% and Edmontonians at 37%. The Calgary Olympics referendum in November of 2018 delivered a 56% “NO” vote but only had around 40% turnout. Even the UCP party leadership contest electing Danielle Smith only attracted 67% turnout, and these were political junkies along with a few non-UCP saboteurs.This voter indifference is unfortunately a result of people becoming completely disillusioned by our democratic institutions. And the current over-the-top campaigning will do nothing to motivate voters to go to the ballot box. What this means is that the actual turnout will be about 55% and perhaps less. And people will be pleasantly surprised by the less-than-expected wait times. The lower turnout also favours the Option 2 side.Other than turnout, a fascinating story by Rahim Mohamed talked about a First Nations lawyer, Leighton Grey, as a star at an Independence rally. “To the government, (and) I’m talking about the federal government now, I’m the other. I’m an Indian,” said Grey. “Which is to say I live in an apartheid state. That’s what Canada is.” As has been pointed out before, support for Option 2 is very high amongst First Nations. However, getting out to vote may be hard given the opposition by Chiefs. We shouldn’t forget that the Alberta Government is appealing the court decision to quash Mitch Silvestre’s petition. This is a reminder that perhaps the way forward to true reconciliation may be through an independent Alberta.Another interesting story from the CBC was about cameras providing surveillance on election sign vandalism. My own observation is that this is not really a ‘sign’ campaign. Stephen Carter’s big roadside signs “Stay in Canada — No to the Nine” are being matched by Keith Wilson’s big signs, which is good. But on my neighbourhood walks, I am not seeing very many lawn signs. Most of them are Thomas (I’m not campaigning) Lukaszuk’s signs, which means he is milking all the personal information he got from his petition. But there doesn’t seem to be a response from the Option 2 groups. This is good, as Lukaszuk’s signs alone give every other independence supporter and me a reminder that I need to show up on voting day. The real advertising dollars will need to be spent not on lawn signs but rather on social media.A new Post Media tactic seems to be to ignore some developments altogether e.g. the release of Keith Wilson’s Alberta Transition Council white paper. According to Post Media, it never happened, or at least it was not news. The CBC did report it but used the “scare quotes” throughout..Also, a poll saying Alberta oil should be used in the trade war was endorsed by 80% of Canadians. But not much reporting of that here in Alberta. Of course, at least one op-ed or news report addressing this hostility might sway a number of Alberta voters to Option 2. Also, it should be pointed out that Jean Chrétien has joined with Jason Kenney and Avi Lewis in advocating the same position. With “friends like these...” and all highly respected in Alberta, what could go wrong?Also on the polling front, there is not much new, but the results from the week before bear repeating. This was how folks are looking at the other nine questions as well. What is revealing is how people are projected to vote on the immigration questions ~60-65% for yes, versus on the constitutional questions ~40-45% yes. This is important because the concerns over immigration may drive voting participation of those more sympathetic to voting Option 2.And finally, the name-calling and mudslinging reached new heights again courtesy of Don Braid. It seems that when you can’t make substantive arguments, you have to just scream “Nazi Nazi Nazi” over and over. Case closed. However, the folks that respond in the comments are not fooled. They were brutal in their denunciation of Braid’s views. And for the scorecard this week, I have to give a win to the remain side. Just the sheer volume and relentlessness of the attacks will wear down voters. On a positive note, Post Media did the same in advance of the last provincial election, but Smith still won.William D. Marriott is a retired economist who specialized in public policy analysis of the oil and gas industry.
