Having managed to get through last week without losing the prime ministership, Justin Trudeau has successfully kicked the ball to touch. Parliament reopens on January 27th, which makes the end of January the earliest that he cold be called to account.At some point soon after in the weeks following however, one of the Opposition parties will have the opportunity to introduce a motion of non-confidence in his government, and precipitate an election."All eyes are now on Jagmeet Singh, the fate of the Trudeau government is now in his hands," says Yaroslav Baran, this week's guest on Hannaford. Baran is the principal of the Pendulum group, an Ottawa-based political consultancy. "Will he join Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Blanchette to say 'enough is enough?' We are codifying what is plainly evident to everybody, that this Parliament is dysfunctional and the government has lost confidence. ".What's held Singh back so far? It was only one day after Parliament rose and it was therefore too late to introduce any censure to the prime minister that Mr. Singh famously declared himself — in writing, no less — that he was ready to vote him out..UPDATED: Singh to bring down Trudeau gov’t at first opportunity."Poor polling and poor fundraising," says Baran. "They're not election-ready. He's trying to differentiate himself from the Liberal brand but the polling suggests if an election were held now, they'd even lose seats."There remains the possibility of prorogation of course, "the big pause button" by which Mr. Trudeau could close Parliament and extend his hold on power "several months, right up to the time he needs to pass another appropriations bill, perhaps as late as March."After that, the reckoning can no longer be delayed.But even having just appointed a cabinet reinforced by personal loyalists, does he really have any power left?There is, after all, such a thing as a moral tipping point. Baran: "The petition calling on him to step down as leader has supposedly reached about 60. (Out of 153 MPs.) It's getting pretty close to 50% of his caucus. Once it gets to 50%, it's a moral tipping point. It's hard to imagine being a prime minister going to work every day, knowing that half your caucus is against you."Perhaps it won't be so hard to imagine when later in January, the prime minister wraps himself in the flag to confront a US president intent on imposing tariffs on Canadian exports... He can only hope.For the full interview, watch Hannaford tonight. It airs at seven o clock.
