CALGARY — According to Mason Hamilton, vice-president of economics and research at the American Petroleum Institute (API), the rapid growth of renewable energy across the globe could ultimately lead to increased coal usage and consumption rather than a displacement of fossil fuels.
Speaking at the third annual Energy Connections Canada conference in Calgary Wednesday, the API executive said countries shaken by recent energy supply disruptions are increasingly prioritizing energy security over climate policy.
Hamilton made the comments after being asked whether geopolitical instability involving Iran could accelerate renewable energy growth and adoption. He responded that the likely outcome would be greater electrification.
While consumers may rethink purchasing fossil fuel-powered vehicles or appliances after periods of high energy prices, Hamilton stated governments and utilities in developing nations have drawn a different lesson from the recent global energy disruption.
"The lesson they learned from [that] is that coal is their friend," Hamilton said.
"What ultimately will happen is that you will have a renewable grid or an increased penetration of renewables, but with more coal to back it up because the lesson they learned in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, is that the coal in their backyard, no one could buy out from under them."
His comments come amid a broader debate in Canada over the future of coal production particularly in light of the Liberal government's net-zero policies and other environmental red tape.
Coal is still the world's largest source of power generation, accounting for roughly 35% of total power generation.
Despite North America and Europe switching to cheaper natural gas options in recent years, Asia still has a high demand for coal with approximately 80% of the world's coal consumed by Asian markets where it is a major source of energy security.
While much of the global debate has focused on phasing out thermal coal used in electricity generation, supporters of metallurgical coal argue it remains indispensable to modern steelmaking — including for renewable energy infrastructure such as wind turbines, electric vehicles, and large-scale data centres — which Prime Minister Mark Carney's government is looking to build upon as part of Ottawa's net-zero policies.
In a recent essay for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Heather Exner-Pirot argued Canada needs to rethink its political approach toward coal.
"For Canada, coal — especially metallurgical coal — is a major export to key Asian partners and an important contributor to economic growth," Exner-Pirot wrote.
"In a time when trade diversification is a priority, steelmaking is of strategic importance, and economic growth is in desperate demand, we need to rethink our support and assumptions about [metallurgical] coal."
In 2024, Canadian metallurgical and thermal coal exports were valued at approximately $8.9 billion and $800 million.
That same year, Canada produced 42.6 million tonnes of coal in 2024, roughly 67% of which was metallurgical coal, most of which was then shipped to China, Japan, and South Korea.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has previously stated the steel sector is "the largest industrial consumer of coal," with coal still providing roughly 75% of the sector's energy demand and metallurgical coal remaining a "critical input for steelmaking."
In March, the Coal Association of Canada (CAC) called on Ottawa to formally designate metallurgical coal as a critical mineral, arguing the move would safeguard Canada's position as a dependable supplier in global steelmaking while protecting thousands of jobs.
The US made that move in 2025 with the Trump administration saying the designation was tied to national security, manufacturing, and steel supply chain.
As of yet, there has been no announcement from Ottawa on the matter, despite continued calls from the coal industry and policy analysts.